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Bessen, Brett R., Brendan Connell, and Ken Stallman. "Fairweather Cosmopolitans: Immigration Attitudes in Latin America During the Migrant Crisis." Latin American Politics and Society (2024).
Estimated coefficients on cosmopolitanism from OLS models of pro-immigration attitudes.
Abstract: What explains voter attitudes toward immigration in Latin America? This article argues that increased refugee arrivals moderate the impact of social identities on immigration attitudes. We propose that informational cues associated with increased immigration make cosmopolitan identities less important---and exclusionary national identities more important---determinants of immigration preferences. Analyzing 12 Latin American countries from the 2017-2022 wave of the World Values Survey, we demonstrate that cosmopolitanism is positively associated with pro-immigration attitudes, but only in countries experiencing low-to-moderate refugee inflows. Conversely, nationalism is negatively associated with pro-immigrant attitudes, and increasingly so as refugee inflows increase. The uneven distribution of refugee migration has therefore reshaped public opinion in Latin America by moderating the effects of competing social identities (i.e., cosmopolitanism and nationalism). These findings contribute to broader debates on the behavioral impacts of immigration by highlighting an indirect mechanism by which increased immigration generates anti-immigrant hostility.
Bessen, Brett R. "Populist Discourse and Public Support for Executive Aggrandizement in Latin America." Comparative Political Studies. (2024).
Predicted probabilities of saying it is justified for the president to close and govern without congress (top row) or the supreme court (bottom row) among opposition supporters, non-voters, and presidential supporters
Abstract: What explains citizen support for executive aggrandizement? Previous work points to support for the president, showing that individuals who support the incumbent are more accepting of executive aggrandizement. Yet, the role of the president in shaping support for (and the meaning of) executive aggrandizement is unexplored. I argue that populist discourse increases support for executive aggrandizement by framing the president as the genuine representative of the people and by portraying institutional opposition as corrupt. Two studies support this argument: First, a multilevel analysis shows that a text-based measure of populist discourse is associated with increasing support for the president closing congress or the supreme court. The estimated effect of populist discourse is largest among presidential supporters. Second, a survey experiment conducted in Ecuador shows that populist and anti-elitist discourse increase support for a hypothetical executive closing the legislature. The findings indicate that populist discourse undermines public opinion as an executive accountability mechanism.
Bessen, Brett R., and Brendan J. Connell. "Another day, another currency: self-interest, experience, and attitudes toward dollarization in Ecuador." Political Behavior. (2024).
Predicted support for dollarization conditional on experience with the sucre-dollar transition.
Abstract: How, if at all, does self-interest bear on individuals’ economic policy preferences? Though conventional theories of preference formation usually assume a role for self-interest, the informational demands associated with understanding economic policies can prevent individuals from forming attitudes on an egocentric basis. Building on work showing that policy-specific information facilitates egocentrism, we argue that personal experience with alternative policy options is necessary for self-interested preferences to materialize. To test this argument, we leverage Ecuador’s adoption of the U.S. dollar (i.e., dollarization) and examine whether material-based preferences toward exchange rate policy are conditional on individuals experiencing the transition from the Ecuadorian sucre to the dollar. We find that lived experience with dollarization causes policy preferences to align more closely with citizens’ self-interest, as proxied by measures of capital ownership and skill level. In addition, personal experience with dollarization drives attitudes against a dollarized economy, but primarily among poor and low-skill workers—precisely the groups that benefit less from this policy shift. Rather than entirely discredit the role of economic self-interest, these findings suggest that scholars devote greater attention to how contextual factors can strengthen egocentric policy attitudes.
Bessen, Brett R. Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe. Electoral Studies. (2020).
Effective number of legislative parties and predicted values of referendum support.
Abstract: Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.
Dissertation: Unbinding the Executive? Public Opinion and Presidential Accountability in Latin America
Dissertation: Unbinding the Executive? Public Opinion and Presidential Accountability in Latin America
Abstract: In presidential democracies, public opinion is thought to constrain the executive through elections and protests. However, citizens’ ability to make considered judgments about presidents and hold them accountable is unclear. I examine how citizens evaluate presidents in Latin America in three interrelated chapters. I first investigate how political conversation shapes citizens’ candidate preference during presidents’ regular time in office. Using panel data from Brazilian president Lula da Silva’s first term, I find that political conversation with disagreeing partners induces preference change among presidential supporters and opposition supporters. Second, I analyze the effect of presidential discourse on public attitudes about measures that undermine checks on the executive. Public opinion data from 18 Latin American countries shows that populist discourse is associated with increasing tolerance of actions that undermine presidential accountability. Third, I interrogate the relationship between populist discourse and attitudes about checks on the executive with a survey experiment fielded in Ecuador. I find that populist discourse and corruption accusations increase support for an executive closing and governing without the legislature. Moreover, I find evidence that these frames discourage protest against executives who undermine checks and balances. These chapters point to the influence of two factors, political conversation and elite discourse, that shape citizens’ ability to hold presidents accountable in Latin America.
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