Social retrospection: conversation networks, performance evaluations, and candidate support
Brett Bessen. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2026.
Abstract
Voters’ ability to assess the performance of elected leaders is central to theories of democratic accountability. I extend theories of retrospective voting by considering the influence of political discussion. Using a panel survey of Brazilian respondents, I examine the relationship between political disagreement in voters’ conversation networks and changes in candidate support across party lines during President Lula da Silva’s first term. I find that Brazilians with more disagreeing conversation partners are substantially more likely to update their views and support different candidates going into the next election. Further, I find suggestive evidence that network disagreement reduces support for Lula by producing more negative evaluations of his performance. The results indicate that conversation networks play a significant but underappreciated role in retrospective evaluations of elected leaders.